Price trend

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the toluene market experienced a downward trend from October 13 to 20, 2025. The benchmark price for toluene was 5,280 RMB/ton on October 13, and 5,200 RMB/ton on October 20, a decrease of 1.52%. The domestic toluene market experienced a volatile downward trend during this period. Major refineries in Shandong Province lowered their ex-factory prices, actively shipping products. Demand in the downstream chemical and oil blending industries remained stable, with purchases focused on just-in-time needs. Prices in the East China market declined, and downstream market participation remained subdued. The South China market, impacted by weakening crude oil prices, saw a weak and volatile trend. Overall, the toluene market experienced limited volatility last week. 

Analysis review

Cost side:

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of October 17, the December settlement price of US WTI crude oil futures contracts was $57.15 per barrel. The December settlement price of Brent crude oil futures contracts was $61.29 per barrel. The toluene market experienced a decline from October 13 to October 20, 2025. The benchmark price of toluene was 5,280 RMB/ton on October 13, and 5,200 RMB/ton on October 20, a decrease of 1.52%. The domestic toluene market experienced a volatile downward trend during this period. Major refineries in Shandong Province lowered their ex-factory prices, actively shipping products. Demand in the downstream chemical and oil blending industries remained stable, with purchases focused on just-in-time needs. Prices in the East China market declined, and downstream market participation remained subdued. The South China market, impacted by weak crude oil prices, showed a weak and volatile trend. Overall, the toluene market experienced limited volatility last week.

Supply side:

Sinopec's toluene operations were operating normally, with stable production and production primarily for self-use. Production and sales remained stable. As of October 17th, the East China company quoted 5,250 RMB/ton, the North China company 5,100 RMB/ton, the South China company 5,300-5,400 RMB/ton, and the Central China company 5,250 RMB/ton.

Demand Side:

On October 20th, Sinopec Sales Company reported a temporary stabilization of paraxylene prices at 6,650 RMB/ton. This price applies to all regions in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Plants at Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical were operating stably, and sales were normal. As of October 17th, the closing price of paraxylene in the Asian market was $759-761/ton FOB Korea and $784-786/ton CFR China.

Market outlook

The recent weakness in the crude oil market weighed on spot market sentiment, contributing to a bearish macroeconomic outlook. Regarding supply and demand, Shandong's recent increase in exports had led to a relatively loose supply within the region, weighing on spot market sentiment. Major refineries lowered their ex-factory prices on Monday, creating a subdued market atmosphere. Demand remained focused on rigid demand, with inventory replenishment primarily driven by demand. Overall, toluene news is bearish, and the market is expected to remain weaker in the short term, with room for further decline.

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