According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic natural rubber spot market has fallen slightly recently (3.3-3.11). As of March 11, the spot price of natural rubber in my country's natural rubber market was around 16,709 RMB/ton, down 2.74% from 17,180 RMB/ton on the 3rd. Raw material prices fell from high levels; domestic natural rubber port warehouse inventory increased slightly; downstream operations gradually increased after the holiday, and the Shanghai rubber market was strong and volatile after the holiday, driving the natural rubber spot market to rise slightly.

At present, the supply of foreign natural rubber will gradually enter the production increase period from the low production period. The Yunnan production area in China will take the lead in entering the trial harvesting period. The production areas in Hainan, Vietnam and northeastern Thailand in China are still stopping harvesting. The current natural rubber raw material price is high and is expected to fall later. As of March 11, the price of Thai glue was 67.50 baht/kg, slightly lower than 70.00 baht/kg at the beginning of the month.

Natural rubber inventories continued to increase slightly, but overall they are still at a high level. As of March 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,400 tons, an increase of 8,800 tons from the previous period, an increase of 1.53%.

Supply and demand: The slight increase in downstream tire production is mainly supported by rigid demand in the natural rubber market. As of March 7, the operating capacity of semi-steel tires of domestic tire companies was around 82%; the operating capacity of full-steel tires of tire companies in Shandong Province increased slightly to about 69%.

Market outlook: When domestic and foreign raw material prices are high, but in the later period, as some domestic and foreign regions start harvesting, the price of natural rubber raw materials may continue to fall. The gradual increase in downstream production has a certain rigid demand support for natural rubber demand, but the natural rubber port inventory continues to grow slightly; on the whole, it is expected that the natural rubber market will be weak in the short term.

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