According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price trend of refined gasoline and diesel in Shandong Province declined in March. As of the end of the month, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 8,041.8 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.31%; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 6,813.4 RMB/ton, with a price trend of 3.18% decline. The decline is mainly concentrated in the first half of the month, and the market is mainly volatile in the second half.

Cost aspect: The decline in crude oil prices has led to weak cost support

The international oil price trend declined in March. As of the 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.36 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.76 per barrel. On the one hand, the United States is increasing its crude oil production, coupled with escalating trade tariffs that may suppress global economic growth, which is bearish for the international oil market. On the other hand, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased. If the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine ends, the United States will also ease its oil sanctions against Russia, causing international oil prices to fall. Overall, the trend of international oil prices has declined, resulting in a sluggish domestic gasoline and diesel prices.

Supply side: Shandong's local refining industry starts to rise, supply side is loose

In March, the operating rate of the main refineries increased, and the supply of resources increased. The average operating rate of Shandong refineries rose to around 52.5%. The supply of imported raw materials has basically normalized, and the cost of raw materials has decreased. Some shut down refineries have plans to resume work. The increase in operating rates of refineries and the increase in supply have had a certain negative impact on the market situation, and the prices of gasoline and diesel refineries have all declined.

Demand side: The demand situation generally shows a downward trend in the market trend

In terms of gasoline, recent activities such as residents' spring outings have had a certain impact on gasoline terminal consumption, but without holiday support, gasoline terminal consumption is normal. Gasoline terminal consumption is mainly focused on residents' daily short distance travel, and intermediaries replenish their inventory according to demand. In addition, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand. Overall, the trend of gasoline market is mainly declining. In terms of diesel, with the rise in temperature, outdoor mining, infrastructure and other units have increased their production, and the demand for diesel in the market is relatively stable. However, the crude oil market remains low, and the increase in supply has suppressed the diesel market, causing a decline in the trend of the diesel market.

Currently, the crude oil market is mixed with bearish factors, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. However, the United States has imposed tariffs on various countries, and the demand for crude oil is generally average. In the short term, crude oil prices will mainly fluctuate. From a domestic perspective, the short-term operating rate of refineries has increased, the supply of refined oil has increased, and the demand for gasoline is still acceptable. With downstream concentrated replenishment on dips, refinery inventory pressure has been released, and the downward pressure on gasoline market prices has decreased; Although diesel is affected by the negative impact of cost and crude oil, the demand for diesel increases with the rise of temperature in the later stage, and diesel has strong resistance to decline.

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