In early April, the domestic ABS market consolidated, and the spot prices of some brands fluctuated. According to the commodity market analysis system of Sino-Sino, as of April 7, the average price of ABS sample products was 11,225 RMB/ton, and the price level rose or fell by -0.44% compared with the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: In April, the domestic ABS industry's operating rate declined, and the overall load was reduced by 5% to around 68% compared with the end of March. The average weekly output returned to below 130,000 tons, but it was still at a high level. The inventory position of aggregate enterprises stood at a high level of more than 190,000 tons, and the supply was still very abundant. At the end of March, petrochemical plant orders rose slightly due to the impact of replenishment orders. In addition, the subsequent maintenance plans of Tianjin Dagu and Liaoning Jinfa were announced, and traders' confidence was not strong, trying to support prices. However, buyers were not willing to stock up, the increase in trading quickly cooled, and the market returned to a weak atmosphere. Overall, the supply side supported the fluctuation of ABS spot prices.

Cost factors: Entering April, the trend of the three upstream materials of ABS collectively weakened, and the support performance on the cost side of ABS was also poor. In terms of acrylonitrile, some units in East China and Shandong regions have reduced their load or undergone maintenance. At the same time, the new production capacity of Yulong Petrochemical's acrylonitrile unit has not been fully released, and the supply has been reduced in stages. And after the previous low-price reduction, the industry's inventory pressure has been partially relieved. This provides the market with conditions for pushing up prices, and the domestic acrylonitrile market has fluctuated and risen. However, considering that the overall supply is still abundant, the market's short-term increase may still be limited.

The recent trend of the domestic butadiene market first rose and then fell, and the overall downward trend. The previous holidays affected some downstream companies to cover their positions after the decline, and the market transactions were relatively concentrated. With the premium transaction of some auction sources, the market center of gravity has risen significantly. Although the supply-side prices are firm, the high-level quotations in the latter part of the week are slightly stalemate. At the same time, the news of the US tariff increase has affected the decline of futures. The news has affected the cautious buying of downstream companies. After a short-term shock, the market price has fallen significantly.

Styrene has been in a platform period recently, and it has fallen and fluctuated in a narrow range. Previously, the raw material pure benzene rebounded after falling, and in addition, styrene will usher in the maintenance peak season in April, and the supply is expected to tighten. Styrene followed the rise at the end of March. However, crude oil has fallen sharply recently, and the outlook for the future is pessimistic, which has restrained the styrene market. It is expected that styrene will weaken in the short term.

Demand: In early April, the load of ABS downstream factories in terms of ABS terminals was generally flat, and the purchasing logic tended to enter the market at the bottom and make up orders for rigid demand, and the purchasing atmosphere in the market was temporarily pulled up. However, as rigid demand orders were exhausted, the trading in the market turned weak, and the flow of goods returned slowly. Overall, the demand side provided general support for the ABS market.

Market Forecast

In early April, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and consolidated. The changes in the three upstream materials were narrow, and the comprehensive support for the ABS cost side was general. The load of ABS polymerization plants has been reduced, and there is news of maintenance of two major plants in the future market. Demand-side consumption has increased to a certain extent, and the current purchases of downstream enterprises have returned to normal. Analysts from Sino-Business Network believe that although the current ABS has fallen to near the cost price, the market has long-term supply and weak demand. In addition, crude oil has suffered a heavy blow due to the tariff policy, and pessimistic expectations for the future market are heavy. It is difficult to find positive factors, and the market will still be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term.

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