In the first half of September, the overall trend of the domestic ABS market continued to be weak, with some grades experiencing a narrow decline in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of September 15th, the average price of ABS sample products was 9,962.50 RMB/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -1.36% compared to early September.

Supply level: In the past half month, the domestic ABS industry has experienced a combination of load reduction and restart, with overall load being high, stable, and fluctuating. At the beginning of the month, due to the poor profit situation of the aggregation plant, some enterprises had cost maintenance operations, but the magnitude was relatively narrow. At the same time, aggregation plants such as Tianjin Dagu are experiencing a return to production capacity, and the overall performance of domestic facilities is limited. The industry load level is adjusted narrowly at around 70%. The weekly average production is around 135,000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises is gradually rising to a high of over 240,000 tons, indicating an increase in supply on site. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, with industry inventory accumulation. At present, there are still incremental expectations on the supply side, therefore, the support for ABS spot prices on the supply side is weak.

Cost factor: In the first half of September, the ABS upstream three material market was generally weak, which had a negative impact on the ABS cost side. At the beginning of the month, the price of acrylonitrile rose, and the direct factor for the increase came from the reduced supply in the East China region. Considering both cost pressures and long-term pre holiday stocking expectations, suppliers continue to push up prices. However, the follow-up of spot transactions is relatively slow, and the northern maintenance equipment is gradually recovering. In addition, there is no significant increase in overall demand. As the middle of the month approaches, spot prices have stopped rising and turned back down. The news is mixed with long and short positions, and the market may once again fall into a stalemate.

The domestic butadiene market was affected by fluctuations in the downstream synthetic rubber futures market, with frequent fluctuations in the butadiene market in early September, but overall maintained a range oscillation trend. In the past half month, the operation of domestic butadiene plants has been relatively stable, with little overall change, and downstream enterprises have been digesting the situation step by step. Without further positive guidance on the market and under the mentality of supply and demand game, the market has given up its previous gains, and it is expected that the butadiene market will continue to maintain a narrow range oscillation trend in the short term.

The main trend of styrene in the first half of September was fluctuating and falling. At the beginning of the month, domestic factories started operating at a high level, and the raw material pure benzene fell. Recently, the maintenance plan for styrene plants in some areas has been fulfilled, resulting in a decrease in overall production, but the accumulation of inventory at ports has become prominent. In addition, due to limited downstream demand growth, in the short term, without significant changes in the macro level, the styrene market may experience weak fluctuations.

On the demand side: In the medium to long term, the downstream factories of ABS have had average loads. The current market still exhibits significant off-season characteristics, with no signs of improvement in terminal enterprise procurement, and the logic remains to fulfill urgent orders. In the first half of September, the consumption of the electrical casing industry remained quiet, and there was no increase in production scheduling. The cautious atmosphere in the external market remains unchanged, and the flow of goods is slow. Domestic inventory levels have accumulated at a high level, and supply continues to be loose, leading to increased pressure to sell on the market. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side's support for the ABS market.

The domestic ABS market was weak in the first half of September. The overall decline of the upstream three materials is bearish, while the production load of the ABS polymerization plant remains stable with little fluctuation, and the demand side remains unchanged during the off-season. Analysts from SunSirs believe that the long-term drag on spot prices of ABS due to supply and demand contradictions makes it difficult for the market momentum to improve. The current ABS market is facing significant resistance to growth, with businesses offering discounts and taking orders, leading to a pessimistic sentiment. It is expected that ABS may continue to decline in the short term.

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