SunSirs : Analyse des importations de charbon de cuisson de la Chine de janvier à octobre et perspectives pour l'année complète

Market data indicates that since the beginning of 2025, China's coking coal imports have exhibited a pattern of “low early on, high later” due to fluctuations in domestic production capacity, international geopolitical factors, and price differentials between domestic and international markets. The primary import structure remains dominated by Russian and Mongolian coal, while U.S. coal imports ceased entirely starting in May due to high tariffs imposed amid Sino-U.S. trade friction. For the full year, we project cumulative coking coal imports to reach approximately 113-115 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 6-9 million tons.

I. Importations de charbon de coke et variations d'une année sur l'autre de janvier à octobre

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's cumulative coking coal imports from January to October 2025 reached 94.12 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%. This decline narrowed significantly compared to the 8% drop recorded in the first half of the year. The divergence in import patterns was particularly pronounced: domestic production increased while imports decreased in the first half. With coal mine output remaining high, the industry's strategy of “compensating for price declines with volume” drove prices steadily lower. Our calculations indicate that China's domestic coking coal output in the first half of 2025 reached approximately 231 million tons, a 1.62% year-on-year increase, while net coking coal imports amounted to about 52.14 million tons, a 6.79% year-on-year decrease. Entering the third quarter, domestic coal supply contracted under policies targeting overproduction and enhanced safety inspections. The rebound in domestic coking coal prices restored import profitability, widening the price differential between domestic and international markets. This created favorable export conditions for Outer Mongolia and seaborne coal. In September, total coking coal imports hit a new monthly record of 10.9237 million tons. Although October saw a slight month-on-month decline of 3.02%, imports remained at a high level of 10.5932 million tons.

II. Changes in Import Structure

En termes de composition des échanges, la domination du charbon mongol et du charbon russe reste inchangée, la structure des sources d'importation étant davantage concentrée dans les deux principaux pays importateurs.

Mongolia: Cumulative coking coal exports to China from January to October reached 47.11 million tons, a slight 0.5% year-on-year decrease, accounting for 50% of total imports. After the third quarter, the price differential between China and Mongolia widened, creating a shortage of high-quality main coking coal domestically. This prompted numerous traders and spot-futures arbitrageurs to shift toward Mongolian imports. In September, the average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port reached 1,245 railcars, a 45.48% year-on-year increase. In November, following Mongolia's political stabilization, Prime Minister Zandanshatar proposed during his Moscow meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang to increase coal exports to China to 100 million tons. Year-end import volume surges continued, but winter snowfall transport constraints and pessimistic price expectations are expected to limit monthly imports in November and December below August's peak of 6 million tons. Annual Mongolian coal imports are projected to reach approximately 58-59 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 2-3 million tons.

Russie : En tant que deuxième fournisseur, la Russie a maintenu une performance stable. Les importations de janvier à octobre ont atteint 26,48 millions de tonnes, en hausse de 4,29% en glissement annuel, représentant 28% du total des importations de charbon de coke. Ses ressources en charbon gras rentables, fournies de manière stable au moyen de contrats à long terme, restent un type de charbon épine dorsale indispensable pour les importations. Le 26 novembre, la Russie a indiqué qu 'elle pourrait augmenter les exportations annuelles de charbon et de produits transformés en charbon vers la Chine à plus de 100 millions de tonnes.

According to China Customs data, from January to October, China imported a total of 73.133 million tons of Russian coal, down 8.2% year-on-year. Among these, coking coal imports reached 26.4228 million tons, up 4.29% year-on-year (the main decline in imports was in thermal coal). Considering timing and pricing, monthly long-term contract volumes for Russian coking coal remain relatively stable. With current domestic demand weak and limited coal blending shortages, imports are expected to stabilize around 2.7-3.0 million tons per month by year-end. Annual imports of Russian coking coal are projected to reach approximately 31-32 million tons, significantly higher than the 30.21 million tons recorded in 2024.

De plus, à la suite de l'imposition de droits de douane réciproques entre la Chine et les États-Unis à partir de février 2025, les droits de douane à l'importation sur le charbon de coke américain sont passés de 3% en 2024 à 28% en mai 2025. Les importations américaines de charbon de coke sont essentiellement stagnantes depuis mai, avec des importations cumulées de janvier à octobre totalisant seulement 2,9 millions de tonnes, soit une forte baisse de 65,7% en glissement annuel. Les importations de charbon canadien ont poursuivi leur reprise mensuelle au second semestre de l'année, bien que les volumes totaux soient demeurés inférieurs aux niveaux élevés observés au premier semestre. De janvier à octobre, les importations ont augmenté de 28,31% en glissement annuel, le charbon de cokéfaction principal de haute qualité remplaçant la part précédemment détenue par le charbon américain. Les importations australiennes de charbon sont restées volatiles. Bien que les importations en octobre aient encore diminué d'une année sur l'autre, elles ont augmenté de 82,13% d'un mois sur l'autre après l'ouverture de la fenêtre de bénéfice des importations. Fin novembre, les prix du charbon domestique ont rattrapé les baisses, réduisant les marges bénéficiaires du charbon australien. Les importations de décembre devraient connaître une croissance mensuelle limitée. Nous prévoyons que les importations annuelles de charbon par voie maritime se situeront entre 22 et 25 millions de tonnes.

In summary, the coking coal import market in 2025 achieved structural optimization amid fluctuations, further consolidating a pattern dominated by Mongolia and Russia with diversified supplementary sources. The increase in imports will be concentrated in the second half of the year, with the share of Mongolian and Russian coal rising from 71% in 2024 to 78%.

En 2026, alors que la capacité de production nationale de charbon subit une réglementation et un contrôle supplémentaires, la production de charbon brut de la Chine approche de son pic. La croissance ultérieure passera progressivement des sources intérieures aux importations étrangères, avec un potentiel de croissance toujours prévu.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 15th, the benchmark price of coking coal according to SunSirs was 1461.25 RMB/ton, a decrease of 6.26% compared to the beginning of the month (1558.75 RMB/ton).

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