According to Shanghai Securities News, unexpected policy changes at the mining end have propelled the long-sluggish nickel market into a sustained rally since mid-December 2025. By the close of daytime trading on January 15, the main Shanghai nickel futures contract had surged nearly 30%. Notably, on January 14, the contract surged by as much as 7.62% during night trading, narrowly missing the daily limit-up threshold.
In the physical market, data indicates that Shanghai electrolytic nickel prices rose by 25.6% over the same period. With Indonesia's RKAB quota reduction policy likely to take effect in 2026, experts are optimistic that nickel has bottomed out in its cycle. However, once prices reach certain levels, they may stimulate new capacity launches, leading to increased supply and potentially suppressing nickel consumption in stainless steel—the metal's largest downstream sector. Looking ahead, factors like mass production of solid-state batteries could drive significant growth in nickel demand.
As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on January 16th, the benchmark price of nickel according to SunSirs was 149,716.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 8.70% compared to the beginning of the month (137,733.33 RMB/ton).
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