Recently, the pure benzene market has shown volatility with an upward bias, while nitric acid prices have declined. This has reduced the overall cost of aniline, though cost-side support remains moderate. Following its mid-December 2025 rally, the aniline market has been in a stalemate. After nearly a month of sideways consolidation, the market has maintained resilience with low inventories despite frequent fluctuations in production facilities. With major Shandong producers securing export orders, the market supply-demand dynamics are quietly shifting, signaling a breakthrough in the prolonged deadlock.

In the feedstock market, recent pure benzene prices have fluctuated frequently, with the central operating range firmly anchored between 5,300-5,350 yuan/ton. Although macro sentiment briefly boosted prices after the New Year holiday, the sustained accumulation of port inventories quickly dampened the upward momentum, causing prices to retreat. Nevertheless, the recovery of downstream industry profits has established solid bottom support, creating a tug-of-war scenario where the market faces upward pressure but has downward support. Meanwhile, the nitric acid market has seen a pronounced increase in supply coupled with weak demand absorption, highlighting supply-demand imbalances and resulting in a one-sided downward trend in prices. Amid benzene's range-bound consolidation and nitric acid's one-sided decline, weekly production costs for aniline decreased while manufacturers' quoted prices remained stable. This pushed theoretical profits in the aniline sector to nearly 1,000 yuan, with further profit expansion anticipated.

In the aniline market, frequent fluctuations in supply-side facilities have become a key supportive factor. The overall aniline operating rate currently hovers around 60%, while commercial aniline production capacity utilization remains at approximately 70%, both indicating low-to-medium operating levels. Before the New Year, the restart of Nanhua's 100,000-ton/year facility was delayed, and its other 30,000-ton/year unit unexpectedly shut down. Combined with a brief halt at Shanxi Tianshi's 260,000-ton/year aniline facility, the industry's overall operating rate remained low. During the holiday period, Tianshi's unit experienced another brief shutdown, keeping corporate inventories persistently low. After the holiday, although NanHua's 100,000-ton/year aniline unit resumed operations, its output was primarily allocated to fulfill prior contracts, leaving limited spot supply available. Subsequently, some Shandong-based enterprises temporarily reduced production due to environmental controls, further tightening market supply and providing support to the aniline market. As of now, the negotiated reference price in North China and Shandong markets stands at RMB 7,950/ton ex-factory (acceptance), while the East China market reference ranges between RMB 8,080-8,100/ton ex-factory (acceptance), with prices holding steady.

Looking ahead, the aniline market is poised to break out of its nearly month-long sideways pattern and exhibit an upward trend. From the cost perspective, although the pure benzene market faces upward pressure constraints due to inventory accumulation, improved profitability in its downstream sectors provides a solid floor. Prices are unlikely to see significant declines in the short term, offering stable cost support for aniline. More crucially, future support for the aniline market will primarily come from supply constraints and external demand. While some aniline plants plan to restart and increase production rates later, most companies are still focused on fulfilling prior contracts. Shandong's major producers have secured export orders for mid-month delivery, effectively diverting domestic spot resources and keeping producer inventories at low levels. With stable costs, limited domestic supply, and strengthening external demand converging, the aniline market will break its stalemate. Jinlianchuang forecasts a steady upward trend in the near term.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on January 15th, the benchmark price of aniline, according to SunSirs, was 8387.50RMB/ton, an increase of 5.57% compared to the beginning of the month (7945.00 RMB/ton).

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