According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, since January, there has been a combination of long and short positions, and the soybean meal market has fluctuated and risen. On January 1st, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,126 RMB/ton, and on January 15th, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,184 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 1.86%.
Supply side: The cumulative import volume of soybeans in China from January to December 2025 was 112 million tons, an increase of 6.5% year-on-year. Among them, China's soybean imports in December were 8.044 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% compared to the previous month. The import quantity of raw soybeans has declined in December, and supply pressure remains, limiting the upward potential of soybean meal market.
Inventory: Starting from the second half of the year, soybean meal inventory remained high in July and exceeded 1 million tons in August. In September, soybean meal inventory remained above 1.1 million tons, with a peak of over 1.2 million tons in mid month. After the National Day holiday, inventory levels declined and returned to below 1 million tons. Starting from November, soybean meal inventory has remained at the forefront of 1.1 million tons. In December, soybean meal inventory was around 1.1 million tons. The inventory remained high, and by early January, the inventory quantity had decreased to around 1 million tons, doubling the inventory pressure and suppressing the upward trend of soybean meal.
Futures: Starting from January, the Brazilian soybean harvest season is dominated by loose raw material supply. The foreign market is weakening, and the domestic soybean meal futures market is average, with weak oscillations being the main trend. As of January 15th, the main contract for soybean meal futures closed at 2,740 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.5% from early January. The futures market is suppressing, and the spot market for soybean meal is following the downward trend.
Demand: Before the Spring Festival holiday, the stocking market in the terminal breeding industry has started, and the rigid demand for soybean meal has rebounded. The enthusiasm for purchasing soybean meal in the market has increased, and the transaction volume in the soybean meal market has improved. Supported by terminal demand, the soybean meal market is heating up.
The soybean meal analyst from SunSirs believes that in late January, the quantity of imported soybeans declined, and soybean oil factories gradually shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in operating rates. The bullish support suggests that the soybean meal market may continue to rise in the future.
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