Price trend
According to price monitoring by SunSirs, stainless steel prices rose slightly last week. As of January 16th, the average daily price of 304/2B stainless steel sheets (1.0*1219*2438, tolerance 0.91) was 12,941.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.58% compared to the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 0.94%.
According to the price difference analysis tool from SunSirs, the price trends of nickel and stainless steel were similar, both showing a significant upward trend recently.
Market analysis
Last week, total stainless steel inventory amounted to 927,200 tons, a decrease of 2.22% compared to the previous week. Of this total, cold-rolled inventory increased, while hot-rolled inventory decreased.
Raw Materials: The bidding price for 1.25% nickel ore from the Benguet mine in the Philippines settled at $32.5, a month-on-month increase; Indonesia lowered its nickel ore quota expectations, and the Indonesian domestic benchmark price for January (Phase 1) increased by $0.05-0.08/wet ton. Nickel pig iron prices rose significantly, with mainstream market quotations increasing to 980-1,000 RMB/nickel (ex-warehouse, including tax), and mainstream transaction prices concentrated around 950 RMB/nickel; The circulation of ferrochrome spot resources was limited, coupled with a slowdown in the increase of ferrochrome supply, resulting in relatively firm ferrochrome retail prices.
Supply and Demand: In December, the estimated domestic stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2671 million tons, a decrease of 226,000 tons month-on-month, a decrease of 6.47%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.09%; 300 series production was 1.7633 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1,600 tons, an increase of 0.09%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5%. In January, the estimated stainless steel crude steel production is 3.327 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.83%, and a year-on-year increase of 16.27%; 300 series production was 1.7193 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 9.78%. As of January 16, the overall production reduction efforts of steel mills were limited. Increased maintenance at steel mills at the end of the year and pressure from losses may force more steel mills to proactively reduce production. During the off-season for demand, construction projects were slowing down, procurement was weak, and downstream enterprises erre facing significant financial pressure, making it difficult for the demand side to absorb high price increases.
Market outlook
Fundamental supply pressure has eased slightly, and cost support from mining and nickel pig iron has strengthened, but demand during the off-season remains insufficient. In the short term, expectations of a further tightening of raw material supply may lead to some market sentiment-driven price increases, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a generally upward trend.
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