Market Overview: Prices continued to decline
According to monitoring data from SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, as of January 16th, the average price of industrial-grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 3,976 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.1% compared to the beginning of the month. The market continued the downward trend observed since December, driven by persistent supply pressure, weak demand, and the failure of cost support to translate into higher prices.
Market fluctuations were primarily driven by the following factors:
1. Oversupply was the dominant trend
Ample Supply: Leading companies were operating steadily, and there was an abundant supply of spot goods in the market, which was the main reason for the price decline.
Cautious Demand: Downstream industries such as polycarbonate and electrolyte solvents maintained stable production, but with the traditional off-season approaching, most industry players were taking a wait-and-see approach, only purchasing as needed, providing limited support to the market.
2. Cost support transmission failed
The prices of the main raw materials, propylene oxide and methanol, were showing an upward trend, but due to strong supply and weak demand, costs only provided bottom-line support.
Market Outlook:
Overall, the dimethyl carbonate market will face a tug-of-war between "cost support" and "supply and demand pressure" in the short term:
Upward resistance: Market supply remains abundant, while demand is entering a slack season, making it difficult to drive up prices.
Downward support: Strong prices for key raw materials and persistently high production costs limit the potential for significant price declines.
Forecast: With pre-Chinese New Year stocking by end-users nearing completion, supply pressure is unlikely to ease, and prices are expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to cost trends and company maintenance schedules.
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