According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the prices of coniferous and hardwood have shown a stepped downward trend recently. On January 22, 2026, the average market price of softwood in Shandong Province was 5,483.33 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.37% compared to the average price on January 11. On January 22, the average market price of hardwood in Shandong Province was 4,650 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.11% compared to the average price on January 11.

On the supply side, the current pressure on domestic port inventory continues, with port sample inventory showing a cumulative trend for three consecutive weeks. As of January 22, 2026, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.068 million tons, an increase of 2.7% compared to the previous period's cumulative inventory of 54,000 tons. The price of coniferous pulp mainly follows the fluctuations of the futures market, and the tight supply of tradable goods in the hardwood market has eased, resulting in a slight loosening of market prices.

In terms of demand, there has not been a significant increase in overall orders in the downstream raw paper market recently. Pre holiday stocking sentiment is light, and market wait-and-see sentiment remains strong. Downstream paper mills purchase a small amount of essential needs, and the market lacks clear guidance. In addition, with the firm price of wood pulp in the early stage, the pressure on the cost side has increased, and there is little room for improvement in the processing profits of downstream raw paper industries. The intention to replenish inventory of high priced raw materials is generally low.

Futures: In terms of futures, the recent weak downward trend in pulp futures prices is the main reason. As of January 22, 2026, the opening price of the main contract for pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,358 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,380 RMB/ton, the highest price was 5,394 RMB/ton, the trading volume was 218,200 lots, and the position was 259,485 lots.

In terms of downstream white cardboard: This week, white cardboard factories continued to send letters to promote price increases, but overall downstream demand is not strong, and the overall increase in market prices is limited. The pace of terminal demand release before the Spring Festival may gradually slow down, and paper mills may have the possibility of controlling production according to their own situation. With the synchronous weakening of market supply and demand, the market trend is slightly stagnant, and paper prices may mainly stabilize.

According to the wood pulp analyst at SunSirs, due to the relatively strong external quotations for wood pulp, traders are unwilling to sell at low prices due to cost pressures. However, downstream raw paper stocks are being prepared before the holiday and processing profits are poor, making the expectation of a decline in market demand more clear. It is expected that the short-term wood pulp price will remain weak and mainly consolidate.

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