According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's synthetic rubber production in December 2025 was 800,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%.
The cumulative production of synthetic rubber in China from January to January was 8.932 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.3%.
In December 2025, the production of SBR dropped sharply by 20.2% year-on-year, and the cumulative production reduction for the whole year was 20.3%, indicating a significant contraction in the supply side. As the main synthetic rubber variety, the shortage of raw material supply for styrene butadiene rubber will directly push up its spot production costs. From the perspective of the futures market, the main contract for butadiene rubber (butadiene class) rose by 3.5% on the same day (such as the 2610 contract rising by 425 RMB/ton), reflecting the market's strong expectation of supply shortage in the synthetic rubber industry chain, and providing strong price support in the short term.
The overall decline in synthetic rubber production is a significant benefit for NBR. The shortage of raw material supply will exacerbate the supply-demand contradiction in the spot market, especially for nitrile rubber, which is mostly used in rigid demand fields such as automotive seals. Production reduction may lead to an expansion of spot premiums. Although the current futures data does not directly cover it, the industrial chain linkage effect is significant. Referring to the daily increase of over 3% in butadiene rubber futures of similar products, it shows that the market's pricing of special rubber supply risks has become explicit.
BR directly benefits from the contraction of synthetic rubber supply, and the limited production capacity of raw material butadiene will be transmitted to the strengthening of spot prices. Futures market data confirms this logic: the 2610 contract for butadiene rubber surged 425 yuan to 12,290 RMB/ton (up 3.6%) on the same day, indicating a stable position and a firm bullish stance. Based on the year-on-year decrease of over 20% in production data, it is expected that the current price of butadiene rubber will rise synchronously, and downstream demand for replenishment may further amplify the increase.
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