By 2025, the global photovoltaic industry is projected to maintain growth in new installed capacity, yet the oversupply situation in the polysilicon market remains fundamentally unresolved. On the demand side, global new installations are estimated at approximately 550GW. Domestically, policy-driven “rush installation” has prematurely released demand, with annual installations expected around 295GW, corresponding to polysilicon demand of about 600,000 tons. Overseas markets, calculated based on module exports, are projected to drive polysilicon demand of approximately 543,500 metric tons. Comprehensive estimates indicate that global photovoltaic industry demand for polysilicon in 2025 will total around 1,143,500 metric tons.

The supply side, however, is expected to contract. Polysilicon production in 2025 is projected to reach approximately 1.32 million tons, a 26.37% decrease from 2024. Based on this, the polysilicon market will still face a supply surplus of about 176,500 tons in 2025. While industry self-regulation and policy guidance may help improve market expectations, the imbalance between supply and demand will take time to resolve in the short term.

Entering 2026, domestic PV demand lacks significant growth expectations, making capacity control the key factor constraining future supply. New installed capacity is unlikely to exceed the aggregate levels of 2024 and 2025, shifting the industry's development trajectory from rapid quantitative growth toward high-quality, coordinated advancement. Data from the Planning Research and Monitoring Center of the Power Industry indicates that in the first three quarters of 2025, utilization rates for wind and solar power reached their lowest levels since the data began being published in 2021, highlighting the growing pressure to integrate renewable energy. On November 10, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the “Guiding Opinions on Promoting New Energy Integration and Regulation,” emphasizing the need to achieve high-quality integration alongside large-scale development of new energy. Additionally, the “Document No. 136” mandates that all new energy grid-connected electricity enter the power market, with prices determined through market transactions. These documents collectively send a clear signal promoting high-quality development in the PV industry.

Regarding demand projections: - If 2026 domestic new installations remain flat compared to 2024 (approximately 277 GW), corresponding polysilicon demand would be about 609,400 metric tons. - A 10% year-on-year decline (approximately 249.30 GW) would correspond to demand of about 548,500 metric tons. a 20% year-on-year decrease (approximately 221.60 GW) would correspond to demand of about 487,500 tons. Overseas PV installations are projected to range between 260–300 GW, corresponding to polysilicon demand of 520,000–600,000 tons.

Overall, global polysilicon demand in 2026 is estimated to reach 1.02–1.18 million tons, with annual demand unlikely to exceed 1.2 million tons. Looking at the longer term, if global new PV installations reach 1,000 GW by 2030, the corresponding polysilicon demand would be 2.0–2.2 million tons. Compared to the current total polysilicon industry capacity of 3.293 million tons, the issue of overcapacity remains significant.

The industry will move toward a new phase of healthy and orderly development.

Currently, the photovoltaic supply chain faces pronounced short-term supply-demand mismatches. As intermediate links, wafers and cells bear dual pressures: upstream polysilicon price hikes supported by “anti-internalization” policies, and weak downstream demand amid deepening market-based reforms of renewable energy feed-in tariffs. The industry's transition toward anti-involution competition, orderly competition, and high-quality development must focus on the entire industrial ecosystem rather than being confined to the polysilicon segment alone. Should the entire supply chain enter a phase of supply-demand realignment by 2026, synchronized production cuts and output controls across all segments—from polysilicon feedstock, wafers, and cells to modules—will be necessary to achieve overall equilibrium.

From an inventory perspective, approximately 400,000 tons of polysilicon social inventory remains to be effectively absorbed, indicating that overall supply and demand have not yet reached equilibrium. In the medium to long term, market growth will gradually absorb existing capacity, but the industry's overall growth rate is gradually slowing. Therefore, it is anticipated that the policy approach will not involve a concentrated phase-out of PV capacity, but rather a combination of policy direction and market-driven operations to guide the industry toward healthy and orderly development. Ultimately, adjustments and optimizations across the entire industrial chain will center on meeting the “dual carbon” goals, propelling the PV industry toward a new phase of high-quality, sustainable development through dynamic supply-demand equilibrium.

In summary, against the backdrop of overall slowing demand growth, the pressure for capacity adjustments in the polysilicon industry has become more pronounced, with supply-demand rebalancing entering a prolonged phase. Polysilicon spot prices lack significant single drivers for either upward or downward movement in the short term. Price trends are expected to be primarily driven by fundamental changes, with the comprehensive cost line of leading enterprises serving as a key support level to watch. Overall, polysilicon prices are likely to continue fluctuating within a range.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on January 23, the benchmark price for polysilicon, according to SunSirs, was 53,333.33 RMB/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.

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