Macroeconomics
1. [Monetary Policy] The central bank governor stated that in 2026, they will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, flexibly and efficiently utilizing various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio reductions and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity. There is still some room for further reserve requirement ratio reductions and interest rate cuts this year. They will continue to maintain the stable operation of the financial market. They will manage expectations effectively and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. Supervision and management of the bond market, foreign exchange market, money market, bill market, and gold market will be strengthened. A mechanism will be established to provide liquidity to non-bank institutions under specific circumstances. The two monetary policy tools supporting the capital market will continue to be utilized to support the stable development of the capital market.
2. [Consumer Loan Interest Subsidy Policy] The six major state-owned banks collectively announced the implementation of the government's interest subsidy policy for personal consumer loans and the optimization of related services. During the implementation period of the consumer loan interest subsidy policy, some high-quality customers will enjoy an actual interest rate in the "2%" range after receiving the subsidy. This level is even lower than the current interest rate on newly issued housing loans.
3. [US Initial Jobless Claims] The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased by 200,000 last week, compared to an estimated 209,000 and a previous figure of 198,000. Continuing jobless claims slightly decreased to 1.85 million, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week.
4. [Bank of Japan] The Bank of Japan will conclude its two-day monetary policy meeting on January 23rd. The market generally expects the bank to maintain its policy interest rate at 0.75%. However, analysts warn that given the weak yen and persistent domestic inflation, the Bank of Japan may adopt a hawkish stance.
5. [South Korean Exports] According to the Korea Customs Service, South Korea's total exports from January 1st to 20th reached US$36.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%. South Korean semiconductor exports increased by 70.2%, leading the overall export growth and accounting for 29.5% of total exports, a year-on-year increase of 9.6 percentage points.
Rubber and Plastics
1. [BR] On January 22nd, PetroChina Northeast Sales Company increased the price of butadiene rubber by 300 RMB/ton: Currently, the ex-factory price of butadiene rubber in Daqing and Jinzhou is 12,000 RMB/ton, for delivery from Northeast China warehouses.
2. [Natural Rubber] On January 22nd, the natural rubber market in Qingdao saw price increases, with spot traders raising their offers by approximately 100-200 RMB/ton. The mainstream price for 2024 Yunbao is 15,550-15,700 RMB/ton. The mainstream price for Vietnamese 3L is 16,000-16,200 RMB/ton.
3. [Synthetic Rubber] In December 2025, China's synthetic rubber production was 800,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%. The cumulative production of synthetic rubber from January to December was 8.932 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.3%.
4. [Rubber Tires] In December 2025, China's production of rubber tire casings was 106.563 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. From January to December, the production of rubber tire casings increased by 0.9% compared to the same period last year, reaching 1.207366 billion units.
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