According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the market for locally refined petroleum coke in March first fell and then rose, with prices falling overall. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 2,387.50 RMB/ton on March 31 and 2,545.00 RMB/ton on March 1, with a monthly decline of 6.19%.

Cost wise: The overall trend of international oil prices in March has declined. On the one hand, the United States is increasing its crude oil production, coupled with escalating trade tariffs that may suppress global economic growth, which is bearish for the international oil market. On the other hand, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased. If the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine ends, the US oil sanctions against Russia will also be relaxed, and international oil prices will fall due to this impact.

Supply side: In early March, the shipment of refined petroleum coke was poor, and there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream. Multiple parties mainly focused on purchasing for essential needs, which limited support for the petroleum coke market and led to a continuous decline in petroleum coke prices; In mid March, the transaction of petroleum coke in the local refining industry was good, with prices continuing to rise. Refinery petroleum coke shipments were still acceptable, and downstream carbon enterprises had good purchasing enthusiasm, which supported the petroleum coke industry; At the end of March, the shipment of petroleum coke from underground refineries was still acceptable, with prices fluctuating, mainly affected by changes in petroleum coke indicators from some refineries. Recently, imported petroleum coke has been gradually entering the port for storage, mainly consisting of medium and high sulfur petroleum coke. Traders are actively shipping, and the speed of port petroleum coke shipments is relatively fast.

On the demand side: In March, some silicon companies in certain regions experienced production shutdowns and reductions, while also resuming production and adding new capacity, resulting in a slight increase in overall supply of metallic silicon in the field. There is a certain supply pressure on the overall supply side of silicon metal, and the downstream demand for silicon metal is weak. The recovery of the demand side is slow, and the overall supply and demand transmission is hindered. The overall market confidence is poor, and the demand for petroleum coke in the silicon industry still exists.

In March, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke fluctuated and fell, mainly affected by the rise and fall of petroleum coke prices. The price of calcined coke fluctuated. Currently, the overall supply of calcined coke market is sufficient, and coupled with limited downstream demand, calcined coke is mainly on the sidelines.

In March, the comprehensive PMI of the domestic aluminum processing industry rose to 61.6% and entered the expansion zone. Policy dividends and peak season effects drove the recovery of aluminum consumption, and social inventories continued to decrease. As of March 31, 2025, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the mainstream domestic market was 806,000 tons, which is 77,000 tons lower than the social inventory of 883,000 tons on February 27. Downstream aluminum uses carbon as the main demand in the petroleum coke market.

Market forecast: Currently, the benchmark price for pre baked anode procurement at a certain aluminum plant in Shandong province has risen in April. A new round of procurement will begin downstream in early April, and it is expected that petroleum coke will have an upward trend in the near future.

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