According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp have both increased after the holiday. On February 8, 2025, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,700 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.52% compared to the average price on February 2. On February 8th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,980 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.05% compared to the average price on February 2nd.
In terms of supply: After the holiday, external quotations increased, supporting the spot prices of imported wood pulp in China. In December, the domestic pulp import volume rebounded month on month, and the overall import pressure in 2024 is not significant. However, the recovery of demand in Europe and America is slow, and pulp inventories in Europe and the world are at a high level. There is a possibility of increased import pressure in 2025, and the overall supply environment in China is expected to be relaxed.
In terms of demand: Domestic paper prices rebounded at the end of the year, boosted by pre holiday stocking, and demand improved. The improvement in supply and demand margins boosted market prices. After the holiday, the paper mills resumed production and gradually resumed work, so the demand for wood pulp showed some signs of fatigue. But recently, the United States has imposed tariffs on China, increasing the cost pressure on domestic imported wood pulp.
In terms of futures: After the holiday, pulp futures prices tend to consolidate strongly. As of the evening of February 7, 2025, the opening price of the sp2505 main contract for pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 6,220 RMB/ton, the closing price was 6,198 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 6,242 RMB/ton. The increase remained unchanged, with a trading volume of 33,200 lots and a holding position of 98,500 lots.
The wood pulp analyst from SunSirs believes that from the perspective of current international macroeconomic policy pressure and seasonal demand on the cost side downstream, there will not be a huge reversal in wood pulp prices for the time being. After the market festival, the replenishment logic of gold, silver, and four will continue, and it is expected that the short-term spot price of wood pulp will consolidate in the high range.
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