According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China imported 58.597 million tons of coal in December 2025. This represents an increase of 6.251 million tons, or 11.9%, compared to the 52.346 million tons imported during the same period last year. Compared to November's 44.053 million tons, imports rose by 14.544 million tons, marking a 33.0% increase. For the full year of 2025, China imported a total of 490.27 million tons of coal, down 9.6% year-on-year. Looking at monthly figures, December's imports ended the continuous year-on-year decline in import volumes that had persisted since February 2025. They also surpassed the 54.98 million tons recorded in November 2024, setting a new historical high.

Reviewing import data over the past five years, December has consistently ranked among the months with relatively higher annual imports. This trend has been particularly pronounced in recent years: December 2023 recorded the highest annual imports, while December 2024 achieved the second-highest level. December 2025 imports saw a significant surge, reversing the months-long pattern of year-on-year declines.

Previously, industry consensus anticipated that December 2025 imports would show month-on-month growth but continued year-on-year decline. However, the actual increase far exceeded expectations. Beyond December being a traditional peak season for coal consumption, multiple factors contributed to this surge.

First, the year-end timing effect led to a temporary tightening of domestic coal supply. After meeting annual production targets, some coal mines entered production halts or reductions due to intensified year-end safety inspections and environmental enforcement, prompting increased procurement of imported coal at the end of the year.

Second, the persistent price advantage of imported coal remains a key driver of procurement demand. By mid-November, domestic coal prices had climbed to near-year highs, significantly enhancing the cost-effectiveness of imported coal and prompting downstream buyers to shift their procurement focus toward imports. Although the price gap between domestic and imported coal narrowed after early December, imported coal still held a certain price advantage. Furthermore, due to logistics cycles, most imported coal arriving in December was procured through tenders in November when the price advantage was substantial, directly driving a significant increase in December arrivals.

Third, frequent uncertainties in overseas coal supply boosted procurement enthusiasm among end-users and traders. As early as late November 2025, Indonesian officials indicated the government was considering imposing a coal export tariff in 2026. By December, as discussions on this tariff policy gained clarity, market expectations intensified. Many Indonesian miners accelerated shipments to avoid additional costs after the policy took effect, aiming to capitalize on the export window before the tariff implementation. Additionally, to ship before the December 1st railway freight rate hike, most Russian miners completed loading in mid-to-late November, with some shipments arriving in China during December.

Notably, according to the latest data from Mongolia's General Customs Administration, driven by year-end clearance volume surges at border ports, Mongolia's coal exports reached 10.62 million tons in December—a 67% year-on-year increase and a record high. Although China's General Administration of Customs has yet to release country-specific coal import data, given that nearly 100% of Mongolian coal exports are destined for China, it is certain that the surge in Mongolian coal exports also contributed to China's increased imports in December.

With January already halfway through, monthly import volumes are highly unlikely to match December's peak levels. Although imported coal regained a price advantage last week, terminal procurement enthusiasm has been somewhat dampened due to the lack of a clear advantage—or even price inversion—in the latter half of December. Meanwhile, factors such as the slow approval of Indonesian miners' production quotas for 2026 and transportation constraints in Sumatra have kept Indonesian coal supply tight, which will also impact January's arrival volumes.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on January 20th, the benchmark price of thermal coal according to SunSirs.com was 710.00 /ton, an increase of 0.35% compared to the beginning of the month (707.50 /ton).

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