Price trend
According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the domestic PTA market has been undergoing a weak adjustment since January. As of January 17th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5,019 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.17% compared to the beginning of the month.
Market analysis
Recently, there have been both restarts and maintenance shutdowns of PTA plants. Dushan Energy's 3 million-ton plant restarted on January 14th, while Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million-ton plant shut down on January 14th, and Zhuhai BP's 1.25 million-ton plant shut down on January 16th. Overall operating rates decreased to around 75%.
Geopolitical risk premiums subsided, coupled with inventory pressure, causing international crude oil prices to plummet, ending a five-day winning streak. On January 15th, the settlement price of the March contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $59.08 per barrel, a decrease of $2.80 or 4.5%. The settlement price of the March contract for Brent crude oil futures was $63.76 per barrel, a decrease of $2.76 or 4.1%.
Due to seasonal production cuts in the downstream polyester industry before and after the Spring Festival, and following the concentrated release of news regarding reduced polyester production, a new round of production cuts in polyester filament yarn has begun (major filament yarn manufacturers have decided to initiate continuous production cuts for a quarter starting from January 14th, with a reduction of 15%). This has weakened the willingness of PTA traders to hold inventory.
Furthermore, the overall new order situation at the terminal weaving end remained weak. At the beginning of the month, driven by rising crude oil prices and increased costs, some terminal customers who had low inventory or intended to stock up on raw materials after the Lunar New Year made purchases. However, overall sentiment remained cautious, and raw material purchases were limited to immediate needs.
Market outlook
According to analysts at SunSirs, the supply and demand outlook for PTA was gradually weakening, and there was significant pressure from inventory accumulation in February. Therefore, PTA prices are expected to mainly fluctuate in line with raw material prices in the short term.
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