Given the high demand for soybean oil in winter, India may continue to increase its imports of soybean oil. As the world's largest importer of edible oils, India's operational trends in the edible oil trade will stimulate the global soybean oil price to continue to rise, which in turn will push up the price of soybean oil in China.

In November 2025, India's edible oil stocks dropped to a 7-month low, which was also far below the 5-year average stock level, thereby supporting the rise in soybean oil market prices. As the market expects India to continue increasing soybean oil imports, this will support the strength of the global soybean oil market, which in turn will drive up the price of soybean oil in China.

Strong demand keeps soybean oil prices rising in the Indian market

Since the second half of 2025, the prices of domestic soybean oil and palm oil in India have fluctuated and risen, with the price of soybean oil showing a relatively stronger upward trend. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the average price of crude soybean oil in India was 122,013 rupees per ton, an increase of 2.51% compared with the average price of the previous quarter; the average price of crude palm oil was 116,022 rupees per ton, an increase of 1.56% compared with the average price of the previous quarter. The price increase in this quarter was mainly affected by the strong domestic demand for soybean oil in India's winter and the international oil market. In addition, the inventory of edible oil in the Indian market dropped to the lowest level in the second half of 2025, which also supported the prices of soybean oil and palm oil.

Specifically, India, the world's largest importer of edible oil, saw its main edible oil inventories reach the lowest level since the second half of 2025 in November 2025, which was far below domestic demand. Given the high demand for soybean oil in winter, India may continue to increase its imports of soybean oil, which in turn will support a strong consolidation of China's domestic soybean oil market.

According to data from the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), as of the end of November 2025, the inventory of major edible oils in India dropped to a five-month low of 1.623 million tonnes, a month-on-month decrease of 6.24% and a year-on-year decrease of 36.82%. The reason for the inventory decline in that month was weak imports. Among them, India's edible oil imports in November were 1.15 million tonnes, a month-on-month decrease of 13.3%, falling to a seven-month low; soybean oil imports in November dropped to 370,700 tonnes, a month-on-month decrease of 18%; palm oil imports were 632,300 tonnes, a month-on-month increase of 5%.

Although India's soybean oil imports dropped significantly in November, it imported a large quantity of soybean oil from China. According to data from the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), India imported a record 69,900 tons of soybean oil from China in November, mainly due to China's abundant supply of soybean oil and its relatively advantageous prices. The strong demand for Chinese soybean oil in the Indian market has provided bottom support for domestic soybean oil.

The expectation that India will increase soybean oil imports may stimulate further price increases

Due to the current low domestic vegetable oil stocks in the Indian market and the fact that the current drop in domestic temperatures has made people more inclined to use soybean oil (palm oil solidifies in winter, increasing usage costs), India will continue to increase its imports of soybean oil. As the world's largest importer of edible oil, India's operational trends in the edible oil trade will stimulate the global soybean oil price to continue to rise, which in turn will drive up the price of soybean oil in China. According to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), soybean oil imports in December are estimated to be 508,000 tons, a sharp month-on-month increase of 37%. Supported by the strong demand for soybean oil in the Indian market, it will provide a bottom support for China's soybean oil market. It is expected that China's soybean oil price will fluctuate upward before the Spring Festival, fluctuating around 8,350-8,600 CNY/ton.

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