Price trend

At the beginning of 2026, the domestic vinyl cyanide market continued the downward trend from the end of the previous year, with the decline further accelerating. The prices had reached their lowest level since 2021, and with the continued supply-demand imbalance in the short term, the market is unlikely to bottom out anytime soon. As of January 16th, the mainstream ex-tank price at East China ports was 7,200 RMB/ton; the price in the Shandong market for short-distance delivery was 7,100 RMB/ton.

Vinyl cyanide prices fell to a historical low, and production losses were gradually widening

Looking back at vinyl cyanide price data over the past five years, prices at the beginning of 2026 were at their lowest level for the period, with a difference of more than 2,000 RMB/ton compared to the same period in previous years. As of January 16th, the ex-tank price at East China ports was around 7,150-7,250 RMB/ton. This price decline began in early December and had fallen by 800-900 RMB/ton to date, a drop of 10.5%. Oversupply was the direct cause of the price decline, as major suppliers were experiencing sluggish sales and were therefore actively lowering prices to promote sales.

Meanwhile, the prices of key raw materials, propylene and ammonia, remained relatively firm, leading to a gradual widening of losses in vinyl cyanide production. As of January 16th, theoretical calculations showed that the cost of raw materials for vinyl cyanide was around 7,200 RMB/ton. For some manufacturers that purchased raw materials externally, vinyl cyanide production was no longer profitable.

The supply-demand imbalance persisted, and the risk of inventory buildup was increasing.

Since the fourth quarter of last year, the oversupply situation in the vinyl cyanide industry has become increasingly prominent. However, during October and November, industry inventories remained manageable due to downstream distribution within the supply chain. Entering December, supply continued to increase while demand decreased temporarily. Simultaneously, some downstream users reached their inventory capacity limits, while others were reluctant to build up inventory due to year-end or contract negotiation periods. As a result, upstream producers began to experience increasing inventory pressure. Furthermore, considering the Chinese New Year holiday in February, sales pressure intensified in January before the holiday, leading suppliers to actively reduce prices to clear inventory.

Supply-side changes still determined market turning points

In the short term, the improvement in the supply-demand relationship of the vinyl cyanide industry still mainly depends on adjustments on the supply side, as there is no significant improvement expected on the demand side. Major downstream industries such as ABS, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide are also facing competitive pressure due to supply-demand imbalances. The ABS industry continues to suffer losses, inventory reduction in the acrylic fiber industry is slow, and the acrylamide industry still has some planned shutdowns around the Chinese New Year. Even considering the temporary increase in demand due to pre-holiday stocking and low-price inventory building, given the current saturated supply of vinyl cyanide, the market support will remain limited and unsustainable. As of January 16th, there were not many planned maintenance shutdowns for vinyl cyanide plants in the first quarter, but as losses gradually worsen, passive production cuts are expected to be implemented, which will lead to a turning point in the market due to a substantial reduction in supply.

Market outlook

As of January 16th, the domestic vinyl cyanide market was experiencing a weak and consolidating trend, with localized sales pressure and fundamentally weak conditions. Furthermore, there are expectations of continued supply growth in some areas, and considering the seasonal weakening of demand around the Chinese New Year, the market is expected to remain weak in the short term.

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