According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the PVC spot market fluctuated in the range last week (1.12-16), and the price performance was weak. As of last Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4,496 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.62% during the week.
Last week, PVC did not continue its upward trend, and this week it has stopped rising and stabilized, with a slight downward trend being the main trend. Although some manufacturers made price adjustments at the beginning of the week, with an increase range of less than 50 yuan compared to last week, the market was affected by weak fluctuations in the futures market, and the spot market also performed weakly. Most of the dealers' offers were adjusted within the range, with little change. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the manufacturer's equipment is operating stably and the operating rate remains high. The supply pressure has not changed much, dealers' offers are generally weak, downstream demand performance is insufficient, downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is sluggish. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electric aggregate in China is mostly around 4,580-4,630 RMB/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, this week (1.12-16), the calcium carbide market remained stable, with recent narrow range fluctuations. According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the fluctuation range this week was 0. Since January, the calcium carbide market has mainly stopped falling, but there is currently no sign of rebound, which has limited support for PVC.
The PVC analyst from SunSirs believes that firstly, in terms of cost: the price of calcium carbide remains stable, and although there is an expectation of a decline in the price of ethylene US dollars (710-730 US dollars/ton), the impact on PVC costs is limited; Secondly, the supply side may face certain contraction: Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan will continue to undergo maintenance, and the expected domestic operating rate will slightly decrease, which will to some extent alleviate inventory pressure; Thirdly, the demand side still tends to be weak: downstream enterprises are gradually taking a holiday before the Spring Festival, and their procurement is mainly based on essential needs. There is a clear resistance to high prices, and actual transactions tend to be sluggish. Taking all factors into consideration, it is expected that PVC prices will continue to fluctuate strongly this week, but the upward potential is constrained by the demand side. The price of calcium carbide method type 5 in East China remained in the range of 4,580-4,730 RMB/ton, with a narrower fluctuation range compared to last week.
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