According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, domestic PP prices rebounded after rising in mid January, and prices of various brand products fluctuated. As of January 20th, the benchmark price for PP wire drawing offered by SunSirs was 6,523.33 RMB/ton, with a year-on-year increase or decrease of 4.32% in price level.
In terms of raw materials: The impact of the previous US actions on the international crude oil market has gradually weakened, coupled with the easing of the situation in the Middle East, oil prices have fallen back from high levels, which has led to a decline in upstream support for PP. The rise in propylene is mainly driven by tight supply and rising demand. The shutdown of two PDH units in Qingdao and Yantai has intensified the supply shortage. In the short term, due to high prices, there may be a need for consolidation, but in the medium term, there is still room for slight upward exploration under cost support, pre holiday stocking, and supply maintenance expectations. In terms of propane, the external market remains strong at a high level, boosted by high domestic arrival prices, and the overall focus of the industry remains unchanged. Overall, the prices of various PP raw materials have fluctuated, providing strong support for PP costs, but with a slowing trend.
Supply side: In mid January, the restart and maintenance of domestic PP enterprises were generally balanced, and the overall operating rate slightly increased. As of the time of writing, the overall load level of the domestic industry is around 75.5%, with little difference compared to the first ten days. The current weekly average total output is over 780,000 tons, and the inventory position is close to 700,000 tons, which has been partially digested. The on-site supply remains abundant. Overall, the supply side's support for spot prices is still acceptable.
In terms of demand: The overall trading atmosphere in the downstream market of the industry has improved. Buyers chasing higher prices have released orders, their willingness to stock up has increased, and refineries are oversold. At the same time, there is a temporary vacuum in the production stage of the future market, which stabilizes the mentality of industry players and strengthens the support for PP from the demand side. But some terminal enterprises are gradually arranging holidays, and the future production schedule may decline. Subsequently, there may be a demand for year-end fund withdrawal constraints.
In mid January, the domestic PP market prices rose and then consolidated. Fundamentally speaking, the strong support from upstream raw materials on the cost side of PP has begun to slow down. Industry load has been adjusted slightly, and there has been an improvement in consumption. Pre holiday stocking may gradually weaken in the future, coupled with the fast accumulation of inventory under the large base production capacity. Therefore, it is expected that the PP market may stagnate and enter a correction market.
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