Aluminum prices rose first and then fell in March

Aluminum prices first rose and then fell in March, and have recently experienced a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of March 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20,576.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.03% from the market average price of 20,570 RMB/ton on March 1.

In the early stage, aluminum prices continued their stronger trend from January to February. Recently, aluminum prices have slightly fallen, and the overall price was fluctuating at a high level.

Fundamental Overview

Supply and demand fundamentals: slow recovery of aluminum consumption during peak season, rigid supply, and continuous depletion of social inventory. The resumption of production in Xinjiang and the new production in Qinghai can contribute to incremental growth, while the aluminum water ratio continued to increase, resulting in a month on month decrease in aluminum ingot supply. The peak consumption season on the consumer side continued, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises continued to rise.

Macro factors: Domestic fiscal policy maintained a loose direction to promote domestic demand. On the overseas front, the US tariff policy has been fluctuating. Earlier last week, Trump stated that not all threatened tariffs will be implemented on April 2nd, and some countries may receive exemptions. Subsequently, it was announced that a 25% tariff would be imposed on all cars not manufactured in the United States.

In terms of imports and exports: According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, the cumulative export volume of unprocessed and rolled aluminum and aluminum materials in China in February 2025 was 408,000 tons, a decrease of 9.53% month on month and 12.70% year-on-year; The cumulative export volume for the whole year of 2025 will reach 859,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.0%.

Market outlook

In the short term, the fundamentals are supported, and we will observe the impact of macro factors. It is expected that the probability of short-term aluminum price fluctuations will increase, and it’s needed to focus on fundamental changes in the medium term.

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