In 2026, the purified terephthalic acid (PTA) industry chain may face immense pressure from production capacity constraints. Driven by tightening upstream supply, paraxylene (PX) prices are expected to remain firm throughout 2026. However, its downstream product PTA faces dual pressures of meager profits and overcapacity, with little respite in sight in the short term.

East Asia is most severely impacted by capacity issues. According to trader data, East Asian PTA margins had fallen to 180-200 yuan/ton by mid-December 2025, compared to average margins of 280 yuan/ton in 2024 and 286 yuan/ton in 2023. Compounding the issue, weak regional consumption in Asia and ongoing trade negotiations with regions like the US and EU are squeezing exports. Zhang Xiaodong, Head of Aromatics Analysis for Asia at S&P Global Energy Consulting, noted that some downstream producers with stalled orders are passively accumulating inventory.

India represents another key market. With domestic PTA capacity expansion slated for 2026, the country's PX demand is expected to rise steadily. Market participants noted that India's earlier quality control order for the polyester industry chain had created a dual-track market structure, but this policy has now been revoked. Additionally, India's GAIL Corporation is expected to commission its 1.2 million tons/year PTA facility in March, which will provide local polyester yarn and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) resin producers with ample and cost-effective feedstock. “With GAIL India's PTA supply, import demand may decline,” stated an Indian PTA producer, suggesting the trend of sustained import growth could slow or even reverse.

Regarding upstream paraxylene (PX), industry sources indicate that East Asia's PTA capacity growth has significantly outpaced PX expansion in recent years. This imbalance is projected to tighten PX supply by 2026, thereby supporting spot prices and boosting product margins. The long-standing trend of PTA capacity growth outpacing PX is expected to reach a long-awaited inflection point in 2026, though PX supply fundamentals will remain tight. Zhang Xiaodong noted that while some new PX capacity is slated for commissioning in 2026, the earliest start-up would occur by year-end, alleviating market concerns about oversupply.

PTA and PX exporters are closely monitoring global tariff dynamics. Policy changes in 2025 significantly disrupted global trade flows, and Asian PX exporters will continue to closely monitor U.S. tariff policy shifts in 2026. Data from the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) shows that tariff policies have led to a sharp decline in U.S. PX imports, with imports from January to September 2025 falling by approximately 37% year-on-year. Imports from South Korea dropped by nearly 50%. During the same period, U.S. PTA imports experienced an even steeper decline, with imports from South Korea plummeting by nearly 75%. However, should the U.S. and South Korea reach a new tariff agreement in 2026, it could gradually restore related trade flows. This scenario also applies to other Asian countries and regions. The impact of tariffs on the European market warrants equal attention. The European Union plans to rule on provisional anti-dumping duties in April 2026 and implement final measures in October.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on January 13th, the SunSirs PTA benchmark price was 5123.09 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.87% compared to the beginning of the month (5079.09 RMB/ton).

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